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 Electoral Systems and Women’s Representation: A Long-Term  Perspective (continued - Page 3)

Ian McAllister and Donley T. Studlar

Factors Influencing Women’s Representation

In our analysis, electoral systems are measured through a dichotomy, those having at least some component of PR, including mixed systems, versus all forms of SMD only. In addition, we consider other factors which might be important in increasing the proportion of women elected representatives, either through previous studies or other potential political influences which might be confounded with electoral system effects. Our list of variables is further limited to those for which we have adequate and consistent data for the 20 countries over a 50-year period. Thus of the six major established explanatory variables for women’s legislative representation, we include electoral system, economic development, political culture, and quotas, but not women’s socio-economic standing or lobbying through social movements.

We would predict that legislatures having fewer average constituents per district should lead to more women being elected, since there is a closer link between the representative and the local constituency, thus reducing competition for nominations. This is measured by the representation ratio, that is, how many thousands of electors there are for each elected representative. The more competitive the party system, the more incentives there should be for parties to search for new voters, which might lead to a ‘contagion’ of women candidates among parties (Matland and Studlar, 1996). Competitiveness is measured by the percentage vote for the largest party in each national election.

Turnout and voter registration are differentially located among social groups, as a consequence of political interest and involvement. This could have a negative influence on women’s representation, especially in earlier years when women tended to vote less than men. Turnout is measured as the percentage of the registered electorate who voted. A variable is also included for the countries that had compulsory voting during the period (namely Australia, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands until 1971, and Italy until 1989)4 in order to measure the net effect of turnout.

The effect of political culture upon women’s advancement is measured by the elapsed time in years since enfranchisement, and similarly for the first woman presiding officer of the legislature in either house. To measure quotas and targets, we estimate the proportion of the major parties within each party system using quotas or targets for the year in question.5 Data on quotas and targets for women are treated equally, though they reflect different levels of commitment and enforcement in the main political parties (Lovenduski, 1993). These are taken from the IPU, updated and supplemented from country sources.

Overall, the R-squared estimate of 0.67 suggests a good model fit for what explains women’s representation among our independent variables. The results indicate that the major effects on women’s representation over the post-war years flow from the electoral system, early women’s enfranchisement as an indication of political culture, and the introduction of gender quotas within political parties. Party list systems (which constitute more than half of the elections) boost women’s representation compared with the use of any other electoral systems, including mixed and STV as well as SMD ones.

An egalitarian political culture, as measured by the early enfranchisement of women in each country, has a strong influence in increasing women’s representation, as we might expect. Each additional year that women have possessed the vote increases their representation by 0.22%, net of other things. This contrasts with previous findings which have tended to discount early enfranchisement effects.6 This is a benefit, however, of taking a longer term perspective on this question. Early enfranchisement of women was related to women’s share of legislators even in the 1950s and has continued despite other influences. The presence of a woman as head of the national legislature, however, has no statistically significant impact on increasing women’s representation. This position is often more symbolic than powerful, serving largely as a referee for partisan conflict on the floor of the legislature.

The stronger promotion of women through quotas further secures higher percentages of women legislators.7 Quotas have been largely introduced in countries where the position of women has already been extensively promoted, such as Scandinavia. For example, the use of quotas correlates strongly with the years since women were enfranchised (r = .41); once this and other factors are taken into account, the impact of quotas on women’s representation is reduced.

In addition to the electoral system, some other aspects of institutional rules also contribute to explaining women’s representation. Although turnout has no overall effect, compulsory voting systems reduce women’s representation by about 1.8% over the period. This may be an artefact of the few countries using this mechanism. Party system competitiveness further reduces women’s representation, although its impact is somewhat less than the three major influences. This is probably due to the ‘manufactured majorities’ produced by SMD systems. There is no significant effect for the representation ratio. Economic development serves as a control variable on the political influences and shows some effect.

Of the variables which positively affect women’s representation, instituting quotas and changing the electoral system are politically difficult. Nevertheless, they are still more likely to have substantial short and medium-term effects on increasing women’s representation than changes in the political culture or party system competitiveness, which are even more resistant to change, or economic development. This is further illustrated by considering the short-term impact on women’s representation of some recent institutional changes, especially in Anglo-American electoral arrangements.

Back - Continue: Women’s Representation in Anglo-American Systems

Taken From - Representation, Vol. 39, No. 1, 2002, pp. 3-14